Strategy performance bucket range select
click a strategy to add it to / drop it
from the selection — the chart, the table and the tiles above all follow it
· ◇ = predictor strategy
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Realized PnL of CLOSED trades out of the trade journal, bucketed by the entry's UTC day —
the clock every session gate is written in. Cumulative lines accumulate from the start of the
selected range, so a shorter range is not a different history, just a later zero.
Green/red cell tint scales with the size of the move. A row is dimmed and marked
ret for a strategy no longer in the roster — its record stays.
These totals will NOT equal the panel figures above: a panel counts from its last
↺ reset and books an open buy's cost immediately, this counts every closed trade
ever journaled. ↺ marks periods containing log-reconstructed trades.
Traders · click a name for its trade history
Recent windows
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BTC Up or Down 5m —
Price to beat
—
Spot now
—
CL TWAP 60s
—
Move
—
Time left
—
━ spot (engine's Chainlink price, 1Hz) ·
━ Chainlink TWAP 60s ·
long dashes = price to beat (spot at the window open) · short dashes = spot now ·
⚠ the window SETTLES on the TWAP-60s at open vs at close, and this page never saw this
window's open TWAP unless it was running then — so "price to beat" is the SPOT barrier,
which is a different number from the one that pays out
σ (HAR-RV) /√s—
bridge P(up)—
OFI—
LightGBM P(up)—
Hawkes buy—
micro-price tilt (bps)—
Hawkes sell—
CL TWAP 30s—
TWAP feed lag—
Polymarket market price — YES / NO —
YES (mid)
—
NO (implied)
—
Best bid / ask
—
Spread
—
Move since open
—
━ YES (up) ·
━ NO (down) ·
━ P(up) Chainlink ·
━ P(up) Binance ·
╌ edge Chainlink ·
╌ edge Binance ·
━ OFI
(edge = model − YES, plotted on the SAME ¢ scale with zero on
the 50¢ line: a line 10¢ above centre is a +10¢ edge)
fixed 0¢–99¢ axis, 50¢ (even odds) at centre · resets when the next market opens · scroll to zoom time, drag to pan, double-click to reset (the BTC chart follows, so the two stay one figure)
fixed 0¢–99¢ axis, 50¢ (even odds) at centre · resets when the next market opens · scroll to zoom time, drag to pan, double-click to reset (the BTC chart follows, so the two stay one figure)