◆ PMQB

BTC 5-min up/down — live — paper PM ✓ connecting…

Strategy performance bucket range select

click a strategy to add it to / drop it from the selection — the chart, the table and the tiles above all follow it · ◇ = predictor strategy
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Realized PnL of CLOSED trades out of the trade journal, bucketed by the entry's UTC day — the clock every session gate is written in. Cumulative lines accumulate from the start of the selected range, so a shorter range is not a different history, just a later zero. Green/red cell tint scales with the size of the move. A row is dimmed and marked ret for a strategy no longer in the roster — its record stays. These totals will NOT equal the panel figures above: a panel counts from its last ↺ reset and books an open buy's cost immediately, this counts every closed trade ever journaled. ↺ marks periods containing log-reconstructed trades.

Traders · click a name for its trade history

Recent windows

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BTC Up or Down 5m —

Price to beat
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Spot now
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CL TWAP 60s
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Move
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Time left
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━ spot (engine's Chainlink price, 1Hz) · ━ Chainlink TWAP 60s · long dashes = price to beat (spot at the window open) · short dashes = spot now · ⚠ the window SETTLES on the TWAP-60s at open vs at close, and this page never saw this window's open TWAP unless it was running then — so "price to beat" is the SPOT barrier, which is a different number from the one that pays out
σ (HAR-RV) /√s—
bridge P(up)—
OFI—
LightGBM P(up)—
Hawkes buy—
micro-price tilt (bps)—
Hawkes sell—
CL TWAP 30s—
TWAP feed lag—

Polymarket market price — YES / NO —

YES (mid)
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NO (implied)
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Best bid / ask
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Spread
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Move since open
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━ YES (up) · ━ NO (down) · ━ P(up) Chainlink · ━ P(up) Binance · ╌ edge Chainlink · ╌ edge Binance · ━ OFI (edge = model − YES, plotted on the SAME ¢ scale with zero on the 50¢ line: a line 10¢ above centre is a +10¢ edge)
fixed 0¢–99¢ axis, 50¢ (even odds) at centre · resets when the next market opens · scroll to zoom time, drag to pan, double-click to reset (the BTC chart follows, so the two stay one figure)

Event log